According to the Mehr News Agency, Hossein Shirzad, an analyst of agricultural development issues, wrote in an exclusive note for Mehr News Agency; Currently, China imports the largest amount of soybeans, corn, wheat, rice, and dairy products, and this dependency has largely increased over the past decade. For example, the value of grain and flour imports has quadrupled from $5.1 billion US dollars in 2013 to $20.08 billion US dollars in 2023. In terms of volume, grain imports have quintupled, rising from 13.9 million tons in 2012 to 65.4 million tons in 2023.
Similar trends can be observed in other key food items as well.
Popularity of Imported Grains
This dependency on imports has significantly increased since 2018; simultaneously with the US-China trade war, this vulnerability has intensified.
Additionally, corn imports in recent years, especially in 2021 when China imported 28.35 million tons of corn, saw a 152% increase compared to the previous year. In 2022, China’s corn imports were affected by the situation in Ukraine and also China’s strategy to reduce dependency on the United States. This reality also contradicts the goal of “ensuring basic grain self-sufficiency and absolute security of staple foods” announced by China in the 2019 white paper.
The popularity of imported grains in China is mainly due to the fact that the price of imported grains is more favorable The popularity of imported grains in China is mainly due to the fact that the price of imported grains is more favorable, especially for some processing companies that are willing to import more grains. For example, considering soybeans, the average purchase price of domestically produced soybeans is 5500 yuan per ton, equivalent to 2.75 yuan per 500 grams. In contrast, the average price of imported soybeans in the first half of 2021 was 1.71 yuan per 500 grams. Therefore, the price of imported soybeans is 1.04 yuan per 500 grams cheaper than domestic soybeans. Also, from January to July 2020, the average price of imported corn was 0.87 yuan per 500 grams, while the market purchase price for domestic corn was 1.35 yuan per 500 grams, resulting in a price difference of 0.48 yuan per 500 grams between domestic and imported corn. Many companies and traders choose to import grains due to this price difference.
Dependency on Seed Imports
In addition to dependency on grain imports, China is overly dependent on seed imports, especially in non-staple foods.
The seed industry in China, known as the “agricultural chip,” faces issues of low quality and efficiency, as well as a lack of innovation. Although imported seeds for rice and wheat account for less than one percent of the total seed supply, it has also deprived China of high-quality imported seeds. Furthermore, the private sector in China’s seed industry is very passive, largely due to their small size, which limits innovation in this sector. As a result, Chinese companies control only 5 percent of the global market, which is much lower compared to Western companies. Although China has succeeded in providing domestic seeds for main grains, it still relies on foreign seeds for vegetables and corn.
Commercial cultivation of genetically modified (GM) crops in China is limited to corn and soybeans due to safety issues Commercial cultivation of genetically modified (GM) crops in China is limited to corn and soybeans due to safety issues. Additionally, the United States holds a dominant position in this sector as it controls nearly 70 percent of patents in agricultural biotechnology. Moreover, China is the largest producer and consumer of vegetables in the world. However, despite having extensive cultivation area and high production volume, China faces significant foreign dependency in the field of vegetable seeds. For example, China is almost entirely dependent on imports for some high-quality and specific vegetable seeds, such as carrot, broccoli, tomato, and eggplant seeds. Among these seeds, high-consumption vegetable seeds like carrots and spinach have an import dependency rate of over 90 percent. Nevertheless, overall, China’s vegetable trade is characterized by exports exceeding imports. In 2024, from January to December, the value of China’s vegetable exports was $18.66 billion, and the import value was $1.05 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $17.61 billion.
Dependency on Soybean Imports
Soybeans are an important product in China’s animal feed industry and are also used as a significant oil crop. Approximately 95 percent of these soybeans are used to produce soybean oil for cooking and soybean meal for the country’s massive poultry meat industry, etc. Therefore, China alone accounts for about 60 percent of global soybean trade. Although domestic soybean production has increased in recent years, reaching 20.28 million tons in 2022, China still imports about 82 percent of its total soybean demand and is the largest soybean importer in the world.
China’s soybean imports have significantly increased from 58.38 million tons in 2012 to about 91 million tons in 2022, with the highest import volume so far in 2020 exceeding 100 million tons China’s soybean imports have significantly increased from 58.38 million tons in 2012 to about 91 million tons in 2022, with the highest import volume so far in 2020 exceeding 100 million tons. Therefore, this became a highly controversial issue during the US-China trade war, as the United States supplied about $16 billion worth of soybeans in 2022, accounting for nearly one-third of China’s total soybean imports. The US and Brazil alone account for 90 percent of China’s soybean imports. Although this dependency has decreased since 2018 due to the trade war, it remains significant given China’s limited options.
By 2019, China had only about 9 percent of the world’s arable land (approximately 2.3 billion mu) to feed over 20 percent of the world’s population. Therefore, Li Qiang, the new premier, emphasized China’s goal to increase agricultural production by focusing on expanding arable land. Accordingly, the “National Land Planning Outline (2016-2030)” has proposed to build 1.2 billion mu (197 million hectares) of high-quality farmland by 2030 to boost domestic production. For specific crops, China plans to increase domestic soybean production by nearly 40 percent by the end of 2025. However, there are challenges such as low yield per unit area, low comparative advantages of soybean cultivation, and weak links between producers and markets. Hence, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs recently launched a 10-point program to promote domestic soybean production. This program includes measures such as increasing subsidies, providing financial and credit support to soybean producers, promoting mixed cultivation of soybeans with corn, strengthening the soybean supply chain from farms to markets, etc.
China has also focused on expanding its storage capacity for key food grains. Although food storage aims to address structural shortages, it always has implications for global food security in terms of price increases and shortages. Additionally, China announced the expansion of government-supported seed breeding and production centers to improve seed quality. The country aims to ensure 80 percent of seed supply from these bases by 2025. Similarly, China has begun revising the genetically modified seed industry to stimulate innovation in this sector. This includes measures such as relaxing testing requirements, strengthening safety assessments, and encouraging independent research bases. Also, the United States’ dominance over China’s food imports could be detrimental to China amid the US-China trade war. Therefore, China has shifted its imports to Brazil, Argentina, and Australia to avoid vulnerability from US sources. As a result, Brazil has become China’s largest agricultural trading partner, accounting for about $45 billion or 20 percent of China’s agricultural imports since 2021.
China has also signed a contract with Australia to resume barley supply, reducing its dependency on European countries for barley. Thus, China has continuously been striving to reduce its dependency on Western countries, leading to increased imports from other developing countries.
Final Words
